Bursa Counters Revisit

CLICK to get the spreadsheet and comment.
MAYBANK
GENTING
MAXIS
DIGI
PADINI

Stock Analysis: CIMB.1023

Rating: HOLD. Fair price is RM6.10 (RM12.20) after early 2:1 split on early 2010. Closing price on 10/15 is RM7.95.

Stock Analysis: WCT.9679

Rating: SELL if expectation of Q3 is flat. However, current speculation this stock will go up.javascript:void(0)

Stock Analysis: AsiaFile.7129

Rating: BUY at RM4.56 for getting potential upside of 17% and dividend yield of 3.5% before tax if purchase before 29 Nov 2010 and get the pay by 24 Dec 2010.

NTPM (NTPM (5066)) - Is it a deal?

NTPM factory is just nearby my hometown, which is Nibong Tebal. Recommended by my friend who bought this stock sometime ago. Most of it products are used by us daily. Thus, I did the fundamental analysis on this company as showed below in this link below:

Click Here for Detail

Fundamental analysis:
Average PE, Premium Ratio and dividend yield is 5.4, 0.93 and 8.5% from 2003 to 2008 respectively. Fair attractive in term of premium ratio as it below 1. As of 4/28/09 trading price: RM0.335, which translate to PE of 6 and premium ratio of 1.16.

Here is the deal:
My purchase price for this stock is RM0.30 (PE of 5.5 & premium ratio of 1.03).

UchiTech (UCHITEC (7100)) - Is it a deal?

Sudden surge on KLSE recently also drive this tech stock in Malaysia to rose from RM0.745 to RM1.24 as of 4/24/09. Thus, let take a look on its fundamental.

Current PE and premium ratio is 8.27 and 2.75 respectively per price of RM1.24 as of 4/24/09. Average PE and premium ratio from 2000 till 2008 was 11.57 and 4.02 respectively. However, its revenue dropped by 22% from year 2007 to year 2008.

Dividend of RM0.06 (TE) has been announced on 4/17, to be paid on 7/17 and ex-date is 5/27.

Here is the deal:
My target price for this stock will be RM0.90 or below which correspond with PE and Premium ratio of 6 and 2 respectively.

Click here for detail fundamental analysis.

Public Bank (PBBANK (1295)) - Is it a deal?

Public bank has hit the 52-week low at RM7 (PE <10) and re-bounce back to close at RM8.10 on 4/10/09. Should be a good deal if maintain its EPS in subsequent quarter and whenever it stock price trade less than PE < 10. However, the Premium Ratio is 3.33 as of RM8.10 stock price.
Click Here for detail

Do you know that if you invest $ to buy 1000-unit of this share at RM2.90 on end of 2000, you have generated 4 time of the capital gain + dividend (after tax deduction) by end of 2008? Was that a great deal?

Do you know that the Premium Ratio (Stock Price/Net Tangible Asset per share) on this initial investment on 2000 was 1.22. This mean that you only pay 22% premium to own this profitable business.

Public Bank Q1 '09 result:
Revenue: RM2,431 Mil
Net Profit: RM596 Mil (NPM: 25%)
EPS: RM0.1744

Revenue drop ~5% subsequence quarter and currently the trailing PE is 11.58 as of its stock price at RM8.45 (4/16)

Here is the deal:
My target purchase price is below RM7.50, which is translated to PE < 10 and Premium ratio < 3.1.

Malayan Banking (MAYBANK (1155)) - Is it a deal?

KLSE soared more than 20 point in last Friday and the MAYBANK didn't move much and only gain 2.58% up from RM3.88 to RM3.98. Thus, let's look at its fundamental value.

From acquisition perspective, per it DEC-08 balance sheet, it total net asset per share is estimated as RM3.05. This was the lowest among these of 2004 to 2008. Hence, per the current trading price of RM3.98, we need to pay additional premium of 89% to own this profit business upon issuing additional 20:9 unit of common stock. The 20:9 unit issue mean to raise the fund of RM6.2 bil from existing shareholder, where with 20 existing unit, shareholder (before 3/31/09) has the right to buy 9 unit at the price of RM2.74.

Per the trailing PE of 4-quarter, its PE is ~10.18 as compare to the average of PE of 15.6 from year 2004 to 2008 (Min PE: 11.5; Max PE:23.2).

Hence, quarterly earning is around the corner and the last Q2-09 (Dec-08) its Net profit margin was 15% (Revenue: 4,709 mil, Net Profit: 734-mil, EPS: RM0.1505)

Here is the deal:
My target purchase price is below RM3.98, where PE = 10 and Premium Ratio < 1.90.

More detail please click Here!

Citibank (C) - Is it a deal?

Based on the recent drop of Citibank share due to the losses of sub-sequence 5-quarters since Q4-07, its share hit 52-week low at $0.97. Thus, let take a look on this particular stock.

Quick look on the 10-yr statement (1999-2008), its average year end PE is 20 (excluded year 2008 due to negative earning). Thus, if Citibank is able to be profitable wihtin 2009 with EOS if $1, its share price might able to rose to $20. Anyway, this is just IF case. Click here for detail!

My average purchase price for this stock is USD3.29 prior and after Q1 09 earning announcement.

Good Luck!

Resorts World (RESORTS (4715)) - Is it a deal?

Based on today sudden soar of it share price to RM2.19 (up 6.83%) as of 3/26/09, let look at some fundamental facts.

According to 2008 Q4 earning, it stated a loss of RM387.942 mil (EPS: -RM6.75). While the net asset value per share is RM1.45.

It might indicate the Q1 earning will be positive...will find out on next month. From privatization a public company perspective at current share price of RM2.19, it is about paying 50% additional premium to buy it (2.19/1.45)

Thus, it is depending how much premium you are willing to pay. Good luck!

Here is the deal:
My target purchase price for this stock is anything below RM2.00, where PE < 18 and Premium Ratio < 1.38.

Up Next on stock deal...DIGI...Stay Tune

Genting (GENT)- Is it a deal?

By looking at the 2008 financial report, the fair price of this stock is RM1.99 if company performance of 2009 is projected with same EPS as year 2008. The worst case calculation on NAPS is RM2.46 and this make this fair price of RM1.99 attractive because stockholder tend to over penalize this stock over the pass year.

Google for "Genting Analysis" and You shall find the previous analysis on WHY min historical PE is 13 Or CLICK HERE

Bank of America (BAC)

Annual Revenue of 08 to 09 was reduced from 119bil to 113bil and net profit drop from 14.9bil to 4bil. As of dec 08, Net asset value is 1,537bil and the NAPS is USD0.30. Beware with the long term debt of USD299-bil w.r.t the cash in hand of USD32-bil.

Forecast that the bank sector might not fully recover on 2009 and it's share price may potentially head to deeper downward if Q1-09 result is not encouraging.

Deal: From buying business perspective, NAPS of $0.30 vs 2/20 trading price of USD3.93, is there a safety margin exist? You can know the answer yourself.

Rating: Not recommended to buy at this price.

Stock Evaluation Update: Motorola, Nokia, Intel, Altera, Xilinx, Apple, Genting

Note: Margin need to pay to privatize a company indicate the amount of additional money to pay per current share trading price. Genting is likely trading at the lower price per the total net asset price.

Stock Analysis: Public Bank

Public Bank (PUBM:KLSE) is one of the stock that beat the market performance.



Solid quarterly performance from Q4 06 until Q3 07 due to NPM improved from 20% to 23% as shown in the table below.


PE analysis result:
Based on the projection of 20 analysts (referring to Business Week as source), the annual EPS is estimated as RM0.59. Thus, the fair value price is RM10.00. (Average of Historical PE x Projected EPS)



From business perspective, the average ROE and ROA over past 4 years is 9.6% and 1.7% respectively. While the shareholder's equity per share and net tangible Asset (NTA) is about the same, which is RM2.61 and RM2.69 respectively for year 2006.
Here is the Deal:
OKII recommend to HOLD Public Bank at present as it is not the right to buy in yet. However, with the rising market of property in Malaysia will eventually help to contribute on its revenue in coming year of 2008.

Link to spreadsheet analysis and business week source for Public Bank.

Which Web Service Provider Market Capital Increase the Most?

Based on the 2 years plus time frame, among the 5 web service providers, Google, Sohu and Baidu are increasing their market capital in the range of 150% to 220%. Thus, which company able to provide the niche feature it will win the game.

Apple and Google Stock Price Sudden Drop

Sudden drop on both Apple and Google in last 5-days as shown in these charts below:

Apple drop from $192 to $153, about 20% within 5-day.



Google drop from $747 to $629, about ~16% within 5-day.





Here is the Deal:
Thus, both of these stocks are trading below OKII Fair Price. AAPL and GOOG stock are selling at discounted price of 7% and 11% respectively.

Stock Analysis: Google

Since Google stock price (GOOG) reached a historical high and closed at $711.25 on 11/2/07. Google announced its' Q3 earning on 10/18 and followed by it unveil mobile strategy on 11/2. Thus, these events trigger OKII team to understand the fundamental value of it incredible company in this century.

PE analysis result:
With the projection of Q4 revenue and EPS grow 9.8% which yield 4.644 bil and $3.78 respectively. This yields yearly 2007 EPS of $13.44. Due to Google only IPO since end of year 2004, we used the quarterly trailing EPS to study the PE track record from Q4 of 2005 to Q3 of 2007.


The current trading price of $711.25 already surpass the OKII Q4 projected Fair Price of $706.69. This Fair Value Price is calculated using: Average of Historical PE x Projected EPS.

From business owner perspective, average of Google's ROE and ROA (2002 to 2006) is 22% and 34% respectively. It retained all its' net profit for growing the business. This business is healthy where it able to give business owner a 22% of investment return since 2002 until 2006, which is referring to average ROE. The company also showed that it able to utilize its' asset and resource up to 34% by referring to average ROA. No debt and inventory are 2 of the spotlights of Google.

Here is the Deal:
OKII recommend to HOLD Google at present as it is not the right time to buy in yet. A full potential of growing company as its internet or web based tools have flood the entire globe, unlimited exploration and with the WiMAX technology, Google is taking the advantage of "You're connected to Internet Anywhere & Anytime"

Click here to get the detail of this stock analysis.

Stock Analysis: Re-visit ALTR after Q3 '07 Earning Announcement

Due to Altera missed the Q3 '07 earning target, it's share dropped close to 20% in less than 3 days from $23.25 to $18.81 as the closing price on 10/26.



Hence, we re-visited Altera stock target price based on PE ratio analysis with respect to the company Q4 outlook. The Q4 revenue is forecast to drop 4% sequentially (worst case). The EPS is estimated based on Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 21.8%. Thus, the revised target price is projected as $24.81, which is the center point of Avg PE (37.28) and Min PE (22.36) with the estimated yearly 2007 EPS of $0.83.



Here is the Deal:
This stock currently is traded at $18.81 as for 10/26. This trading price of $18.81 give a 25% of discount per the target price of $24.81. Thus, we recommend to BUY this stock at current trading price.

The Altera stock analysis spreadsheet can be obtained by clicking here.
Click here for reviewing previous Altera stock analysis on May 01, 2007.

Black Monday - 1987

On Oct 19, 2007, the Dow Jones dropped more than 350 point in single day. This phenomena was about similar to Black Monday of 1987. This may be a right time to enter the market as shown in table below?



This chart is captured to indicate Black Monday - 1987:
Notice the sharp fall drop, which happened on Oct 19, 1987. Dow Jones felt 508 points to 1739 (22.6%). Thenafter, it took about 2 years to recovered back to 2,500 points. For more info, please click here.