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Thursday, May 7, 2009

Do You Know?

According to Bank Negara announced Thursday (5/7/09) that international reserves as at April 30 stood at RM320.4 billion (US$87.7 billion).

The central bank said the reserves were sufficient to finance 8.1 months of retained imports and was four times the short-term external debt.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

NTPM (NTPM (5066)) - Is it a deal?

NTPM factory is just nearby my hometown, which is Nibong Tebal. Recommended by my friend who bought this stock sometime ago. Most of it products are used by us daily. Thus, I did the fundamental analysis on this company as showed below in this link below:

Click Here for Detail

Fundamental analysis:
Average PE, Premium Ratio and dividend yield is 5.4, 0.93 and 8.5% from 2003 to 2008 respectively. Fair attractive in term of premium ratio as it below 1. As of 4/28/09 trading price: RM0.335, which translate to PE of 6 and premium ratio of 1.16.

Here is the deal:
My purchase price for this stock is RM0.30 (PE of 5.5 & premium ratio of 1.03).

UchiTech (UCHITEC (7100)) - Is it a deal?

Sudden surge on KLSE recently also drive this tech stock in Malaysia to rose from RM0.745 to RM1.24 as of 4/24/09. Thus, let take a look on its fundamental.

Current PE and premium ratio is 8.27 and 2.75 respectively per price of RM1.24 as of 4/24/09. Average PE and premium ratio from 2000 till 2008 was 11.57 and 4.02 respectively. However, its revenue dropped by 22% from year 2007 to year 2008.

Dividend of RM0.06 (TE) has been announced on 4/17, to be paid on 7/17 and ex-date is 5/27.

Here is the deal:
My target price for this stock will be RM0.90 or below which correspond with PE and Premium ratio of 6 and 2 respectively.

Click here for detail fundamental analysis.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

ASN & Wawasan Fund

Info from thestar:
A total of 3.33 billion ASM units were put up for sale yesterday, and will on sale until July 20, subject to availability.

Another 2 billion units of Amanah Saham Wawasan 2020 will be offered starting April 27 to May 6.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Public Bank (PBBANK (1295)) - Is it a deal?

Public bank has hit the 52-week low at RM7 (PE <10) and re-bounce back to close at RM8.10 on 4/10/09. Should be a good deal if maintain its EPS in subsequent quarter and whenever it stock price trade less than PE < 10. However, the Premium Ratio is 3.33 as of RM8.10 stock price.
Click Here for detail

Do you know that if you invest $ to buy 1000-unit of this share at RM2.90 on end of 2000, you have generated 4 time of the capital gain + dividend (after tax deduction) by end of 2008? Was that a great deal?

Do you know that the Premium Ratio (Stock Price/Net Tangible Asset per share) on this initial investment on 2000 was 1.22. This mean that you only pay 22% premium to own this profitable business.


Public Bank Q1 '09 result:
Revenue: RM2,431 Mil
Net Profit: RM596 Mil (NPM: 25%)
EPS: RM0.1744

Revenue drop ~5% subsequence quarter and currently the trailing PE is 11.58 as of its stock price at RM8.45 (4/16)

Here is the deal:
My target purchase price is below RM7.50, which is translated to PE < 10 and Premium ratio < 3.1.

Malayan Banking (MAYBANK (1155)) - Is it a deal?

KLSE soared more than 20 point in last Friday and the MAYBANK didn't move much and only gain 2.58% up from RM3.88 to RM3.98. Thus, let's look at its fundamental value.

From acquisition perspective, per it DEC-08 balance sheet, it total net asset per share is estimated as RM3.05. This was the lowest among these of 2004 to 2008. Hence, per the current trading price of RM3.98, we need to pay additional premium of 89% to own this profit business upon issuing additional 20:9 unit of common stock. The 20:9 unit issue mean to raise the fund of RM6.2 bil from existing shareholder, where with 20 existing unit, shareholder (before 3/31/09) has the right to buy 9 unit at the price of RM2.74.

Per the trailing PE of 4-quarter, its PE is ~10.18 as compare to the average of PE of 15.6 from year 2004 to 2008 (Min PE: 11.5; Max PE:23.2).

Hence, quarterly earning is around the corner and the last Q2-09 (Dec-08) its Net profit margin was 15% (Revenue: 4,709 mil, Net Profit: 734-mil, EPS: RM0.1505)

Here is the deal:
My target purchase price is below RM3.98, where PE = 10 and Premium Ratio < 1.90.

More detail please click Here!

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Citibank (C) - Is it a deal?

Based on the recent drop of Citibank share due to the losses of sub-sequence 5-quarters since Q4-07, its share hit 52-week low at $0.97. Thus, let take a look on this particular stock.

Quick look on the 10-yr statement (1999-2008), its average year end PE is 20 (excluded year 2008 due to negative earning). Thus, if Citibank is able to be profitable wihtin 2009 with EOS if $1, its share price might able to rose to $20. Anyway, this is just IF case. Click here for detail!

My average purchase price for this stock is USD3.29 prior and after Q1 09 earning announcement.

Good Luck!

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Resorts World (RESORTS (4715)) - Is it a deal?

Based on today sudden soar of it share price to RM2.19 (up 6.83%) as of 3/26/09, let look at some fundamental facts.

According to 2008 Q4 earning, it stated a loss of RM387.942 mil (EPS: -RM6.75). While the net asset value per share is RM1.45.

It might indicate the Q1 earning will be positive...will find out on next month. From privatization a public company perspective at current share price of RM2.19, it is about paying 50% additional premium to buy it (2.19/1.45)

Thus, it is depending how much premium you are willing to pay. Good luck!

Here is the deal:
My target purchase price for this stock is anything below RM2.00, where PE < 18 and Premium Ratio < 1.38.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Is it a good news?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) -- a.k.a. TSMC -- is the world's largest chip-making specialist. The company takes designs from fab-less chip designers like NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA), Atheros (Nasdaq: ATHR), and Silicon Laboratories (Nasdaq: SLAB) and turns the theory into real pieces of working silicon. TSMC moved to a four-day work week recently in order to control costs. Now, everyone is back to the factory for five full days per week.

This comes only days after Taiwanese gadget assembly specialist Hon Hai Precision Industries went on a hiring spree to replace workers sacked over the holidays. And you haven't forgotten about the pending consolidation in Taiwan's massive computer memory operations, right? There are big things afoot in Taiwan today.

full coverage:Click Here

Nasdaq is trading at 1500++.

Friday, March 6, 2009

US Job Rate-03-06-09

Employers clipped 651,000 jobs from nonfarm payrolls in February, on target with expectations, though the prior two months were revised to show many more jobs were lost than previously thought. The unemployment rate hit a 25-year high of 8.1 percent, much worse than expected.

Pick from: cnbc

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Prediction of Dow Jones Index

This is just a prediction based on depression occurred in 1929, which assume half worst effect on dow index.



Saturday, February 21, 2009

Genting (GENT)- Is it a deal?



By looking at the 2008 financial report, the fair price of this stock is RM1.99 if company performance of 2009 is projected with same EPS as year 2008. The worst case calculation on NAPS is RM2.46 and this make this fair price of RM1.99 attractive because stockholder tend to over penalize this stock over the pass year.

Google for "Genting Analysis" and You shall find the previous analysis on WHY min historical PE is 13 Or CLICK HERE

Bank of America (BAC)

Annual Revenue of 08 to 09 was reduced from 119bil to 113bil and net profit drop from 14.9bil to 4bil. As of dec 08, Net asset value is 1,537bil and the NAPS is USD0.30. Beware with the long term debt of USD299-bil w.r.t the cash in hand of USD32-bil.

Forecast that the bank sector might not fully recover on 2009 and it's share price may potentially head to deeper downward if Q1-09 result is not encouraging.

Deal: From buying business perspective, NAPS of $0.30 vs 2/20 trading price of USD3.93, is there a safety margin exist? You can know the answer yourself.

Rating: Not recommended to buy at this price.

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Stock Evaluation Update: Motorola, Nokia, Intel, Altera, Xilinx, Apple, Genting



Note: Margin need to pay to privatize a company indicate the amount of additional money to pay per current share trading price. Genting is likely trading at the lower price per the total net asset price.