Sometime, a good company may not trade at great fair value price to buy in. Thus, a fundamental of analysis has been carried out to find the fair value of Apple on Oct 5, 07.
Here is the PE analysis result:
Assume that Q4 of 07 is up 7% from previous quater, where the revenue is 5.82 bil and EPS is $1.17. This will yield the 2007 year's revenue and EPS of 23.6 bil and $4.17 respectively. Again, the PE analysis is using the historical data of 6 years PE rack record, which is from 2002 to 2007.
The target price is projected as $106.39, which is the center point Avg PE (39.24) and Min PE (11.79) with EPS of $4.17.
Here is the Deal:
So, for Avg PE's result, there is only 1.4% of safety margin with respect to current trading price on 10/07/07, which is $163.63 divided by $161.45. Thus, this great company stock price is trading at ~60% of targeted price and this is not the right time to buy in ($161.45/$106.39).
Click here to get the analysis detail.
3 comments:
Lesson Learn:
On 9/30/02, Apple total net worth is 6 billion. Thus, you can acquire the whole company throught stock purchase at total of 5 billion, which translated to USD7 per share. This company still has the net profit margin of 1.1%. This was a seldom seem phenomenan in tech company.
Check out the
Apple Q4 '07 Earning from OKII Fund Manager!
Apple stock price hit $180 on May 2, 08, which soar from Feb 22 @ $119. Thus, hope this fundamental analysis help us to have a base price prior bargain with Mr. Market.
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